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Upcoming Economic Reports

February 5, 2007
By Ken Worsley


This week’s upcoming economic reports have been posted; there was a slight delay this week, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t any! One that I’ll be watching is the announcement of January International Reserves/Foreign Currency. Right ahead of the G7 meeting, this just might become and issue.

We’re also looking out for the January Economy Watchers Survey, which should give us an idea of where the economy is headed on the way into the BOJ’s governor’s meeting later this month…any predictions?

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Comments

5 Responses to “Upcoming Economic Reports”

  1. Ali on February 8th, 2007 12:38 am

    For gods sake hold rates at 25 bps, who on earth thinks that demand growth and inflation is too strong in Japan needs a reality check. Some upward pressure on asset prices would be nice for this miserable economy and would at least be something new for a change! Lets see those oldies spend their pensions!! Go out and BUY!

  2. Ken Worsley on February 8th, 2007 1:02 am

    I’m with you, but it looks like Japan is going to catch flak at the G7 meetings for keeping its currency low due to its monetary policy…never mind whether or not there is any real relation between the two. G7 ministers are bound to say that low interest rates are keeping the yen artificially weak.

    Keep in mind: Throughout 2004, the BOJ held benchmark interest rates at .1%. That would be .15% lower than the current rate, which leads us to ask for some sort of correlation to the current situation:

    The average exchange rate on the JPY/USD for 2004? 108.17451
    The low for the yen in 2004: 114.88
    The high for the yen in 2004: 101.81

    Now the US Treasury Department is saying that Japan hasn’t manipulated the currency markets since March 2004. On March 1, 2004, the yen was at 109.090 against the dollar. 120 days later, 4 months after the BOJ’s supposed manipulation, on July 1, 2004? 108.850.

    Maybe they should bring that manipulation back…

  3. Ali on February 8th, 2007 4:28 am

    The G7 economies are home to the entities that are selling Yen so aggressively. If an economy experiences deflation for over a decade, I think they warrant the right to ensure that they ensure reflation is present before taking steps to raise rates any time soon.

    Besides, even if Japan was to normalise rates to 2% even, would that really kill the carry trade and stop people selling Yen? Doubt it, the interest rate differential is still significant between Japan and the rest of the world.

    When you think of the vast depth of currency markets, adhoc currency manipulation does little to sustain exchange rates unless you have a dedicated policy to Peg.

    As you pointed out, interesting that the Yen was stronger when rates were lower… obviously its out of the hands of the BoJ to a large extent… oh the wonders of free floating rates. Are the G7 not happy with free floats nor pegs? What exactly DO they want for xmas?

    Thanks for replying!

  4. Ken Worsley on February 9th, 2007 4:44 am

    Besides, even if Japan was to normalise rates to 2% even, would that really kill the carry trade and stop people selling Yen?

    No, I don’t think so…it’s still a deal, though less of one.

    I think currency manipulation has nothing to do with sustaining exchange rates. The amount of money Japan supposedly used in manipulating the markets adds up to nothing in a market with $1 trillion of daily liquidity, other than having a temporary psychological influence on traders who read the news and trade on that.

  5. Best High Yield Bond Fund on June 27th, 2007 1:51 am

    Best High Yield Bond Fund…

    Your blog posts are insightful. I will take them into deep thought and consideration. Your point of view is very smart and intellectual. Charlie…

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