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Cabinet Office’s Revised First Quarter GDP Growth: Up to 3.3 Percent

June 11, 2007
By Ken Worsley


As we mentioned a week ago, the Cabinet Office’s revised GDP figures were due out today, and many observers had been expecting a rise from the preliminary 2.4% annualized growth to something in the 3.2% range. Today, the Cabinet Office announced its revised GDP figures for the first quarter of 2007, and the figure has been revised to an annualized 3.3% growth in GDP.

According to the Cabinet Office: “The upward revision in capital investment, which stemmed from robust demand-side data which became available after the preliminary report, contributed most to lifting the revised overall GDP data in the January-March period.”

The revised figures mean that the Japanese economy will need to grow 0.2% (0.8% annualized) in each of the four quarters for fiscal 2007 in order to achieve the government’s projected annualized 2.0% growth. That’s looking more and more possible these days.

Filed Under Cabinet Office, Economic Reports, GDP 

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Comments

One Response to “Cabinet Office’s Revised First Quarter GDP Growth: Up to 3.3 Percent”

  1. Ivan Kitov on July 9th, 2007 6:36 pm

    In 2005, developed a model to describe and predict real GDP in Japan at time horizons up to 17 years using the only defining parameter - age structure of the Japanese society, as presented in my paper http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/2737.html .
    Specifically - the number of 18-year-olds, N(t), as reported by the Japanese statistical agency.

    dGDP(t)/GDP(t)dt = A/GDP(t) B*dN(t)/N(t)dt ,

    where A and B are empirical coefficients. Similar relationships are obtained and work excellent for the USA, the UK, France, and other developed countries.
    The model was calibrated to the real GDP growth rates between 1985 and 2003. The prediction was given for the years after 2004. It looks that the model accurately predicts the evolution of real economy in Japan since 2004. As in my previous comment on inflation, I can not present any figure here and would like to invite to read my post (or aforementioned paper)

    http://inflationusa.blogspot.com/2007/07/modelling-evolution-of-real-gdp-in.html

    The principal finding is that the Japanese economy will recover to its trend growth around 2010 when all negative effects of decreasing young population will disappear. Actually, nothing can last forever and also birth rate reaching its minimum starts to increase at some point

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