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Japan’s Upper House Election - Live Blogging Commentary

(This will be a somewhat random, scattered post, updated with links and bits from TV and hearsay as it happens. I have added my live blogging of the election results at the end of the post, after the cut to ‘continue reading’)

If you’re looking for a good running commentary of the Upper House election as the results continue to come in, I recommend what’s going on over at Japan Economy Watch, where Edward Hugh is putting together a good running post of events as they happen. And he asks the big question, “how the hell will the markets read all this?”

At this stage (2:00AM JST), with 6 seats left to be confirmed, the breakdown is like this:

LDP: 35
DPJ: 59
Komeito: 8
Japan Communist Party: 3
Socialist Party: 1
People’s New Party: 1
Independent: 8

Source: Nippon Television

This is being updated as results are reported.

As the Japan Observer points out, in his appearance on NHK just a short time ago, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe used the phrase ‘a new country’ rather than ‘a beautiful country’.

LDP heavyweight and Upper House Party Chief Katayama has made his concession speech.

Over at Trans-Pacific Radio, we’ve posted an interview with Debito Arudou that was done on Friday, with Debito’s predictions for the election. He’s been pretty dead-on so far…

My live bogging of election coverage from midnight to 2am is past the cut…

12:00AM News Zero is just rocking Abe right now, with its feature on the “Next Generation.” Their poll shows 36.9% support for Abe overall, with just over 29% amongst voters aged 20-30. Amongst that age group, the top two reasons given for not supporting Abe are, 1) No leadership skills and 2) He doesn’t watch the people. Up at the top of the screen it says: 首相は辞めるべき？ (Should the Prime Minister quit?) Abe has been sweating profusely during his media appearances tonight.

12:09AM The LDP’s #2 man, Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa, is talking to Fuji TV right now, saying that Abe needs to push forward with his reformist agenda. Rumors are rife that Nakagawa will step down (as Abe did himself in 2004) in order to take responsibility for the loss. Who’s lining up to take his place?

12:13AM I’m seeing that NHK is giving a different breakdown of ‘confirmed’ seats, with 10 left, the LDP at 33 and the DPJ at 59. TV Tokyo also has slightly different numbers, though they say that there are 24 races left to confirm…

12:19AM Fuji TV is reporting right now that former Asahi TV announcer Marukawa Tamayo is in for Tokyo’s #5 spot and that incumbent Sanzo Hosaka is out, in the #6 place. They’re showing Hosaka live and he does not look like he wants to be there. Here is a great pic with Abe sandwiched between Marukawa and Hosaka (She’s on the left).

12:29AM Marukawa is speaking from her campaign headquarters in Shimbashi right now, live on Nippon TV. She can bow a lot and say “Arigatou Gozaimashita” and “Sou desu ne” while forcing painfully strained smiles, which is a good sign for her political future. I get the feeling that she would be celebrating more if the incumbent (the LDP’s Hosaka) were not once place behind her.

12:31AM Waiting for Hosaka to announce that he’s gearing up, along with Katayama, for a run in the next Lower House election…

12:34AM Quite frankly, I find it hard to believe that people voted for Marukawa. Earlier this week, I threatened to lose faith in the voting public if she got into office based on being a good-looking former TV announcer. I’m not even allowed to make good on that threat. This isn’t fair at all. Thinking about it makes me want to drink. Have to change the channel…

12:36AM TBS is showing a hand-drawn chart illustrating the breakdown of seats and attempting to guess how bad the results have to be in order for Abe to step down. Why didn’t he just run 36 year old former female TV announcers in every race, up and down the country? Someone’s going to have to catch on to this as an election strategy. The People’s New Party was desperate enough to run Alberto Fujimori, so they just might be willing to give my idea a chance…

12:40AM TV Tokyo has switched to showing highlights of tonight’s Giants-Hiroshima game. Highlights if you’re a Giants fan. While the rest of the TPR crew was at Jingu Stadium tonight for the rain-shortened Swallows loss to Chunichi, I was working on my curry recipe and watching the news. Next weekend, the Giants roll into Jingu Stadium and we’ll be there for sure to watch the Swallows tear them apart. If Iwamura comes back from MLB…

12:46AM Shizuka Kamei, the leader of the People’s New Party, is speaking live on Nippon TV. He really has the hair cemented in place tonight. Skillfully avoided any questions about Fujimori.

12:50AM Nippon TV is now talking to Mizuho Fukushima, the leader of the Socialists (or whatever they’re going to change their name to). Her face is not the same shade as the rest of her skin. I don’t know if this is makeup, lighting, or some sort of faux-Marxist tanline, but the effect is mesmerizing. I hope they keep her on all night.

12:51AM Fukushima’s been pulled and they’re showing the dregs of the Tokyo candidates, people who only got votes from their families or pets. People like Yuko Tojo and Dr Nakamats.

12:53AM TV Tokyo’s still on the sports, showing lowlights of team Japan’s awful soccer loss to Korea last night. God I hope they fire Coach Ossim. Give Katayama the job. Anybody would be better. Ok, anybody but Zico.

12:55AM Nippon TV is doing a feature on Kawada Ryuhei, the Tokyo candidate who is HIV positive, due to an erroneous blood transfusion. This guy is good. Only 31 years old and can work a crowd like no one else I’ve seen this election. He got the vote of at least one of my family members, ended up finishing #4 in Tokyo (just ahead of Marukawa), and now he’s on live TV.

1:00AM The Nikkei has just published a 5 word article in English predicting that the LDP will fall short of 40 seats. Way to be on top of things…

1:05AM Abe is speaking live on NHK, but the announcer is just talking over him…Abe is saying that he’ll have to think about a Cabinet reshuffle. As I flip through the channels, I realize that there are a lot of really old guys who must be up way beyond their bedtimes. A bunch of them are just yelling at each other on TBS.

1:09AM Kyodo: Abe’s hold on power in doubt as LDP heads for crushing defeat

They have a priceless picture of Abe and Nakagawa. It’ll take a sec to get it, since Kyodo has JavaScript disabling left clicking on their site (So you have to go through the annoying step of disabling JavaScript in order to steal images from their site…)

1:12AM Got the pic, but now Marukawa’s on TV Tokyo. Poor girl, she looks exhausted and the stress has taken a beating on her skin. I still find it hard to believe that over 600,000 people voted for her. Now they’re showing her standing next to Tokyo Governor Ishihara Shintaro as he babbles on about Ichiro Ozawa. Marukawa’s campaign team has banners reading, “It’s good to be Japanese!” (loose translation). I’m getting a drink.

1:20AM New Party Nippon leader Yasuo Tanaka is speaking on TBS, in front of a sign advertising his party’s website, love-nippon.com, which has really bad flash animations. That drink is taking too long…

1:29AM Nippon TV is back on the ball with some survey results. Amongst voters from 20-30 years old, the number one issue was pensions. That’s impressive, actually, given how few people think about them seriously in their 20s. At any rate, when asked if they could trust the current government with safeguarding their pensions, 68.8% said no, 25.7% said they were not sure, and 5.5% said yes.

11.4% of respondents said that they were not paying into the national pension program. When that group was asked why, the number one response, at 33%, was that it made no economic sense for them to pay into the national pension system.

1:34AM DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa is apparently ill, and that’s why we have not been seeing him on TV tonight.

1:35AM Nakagawa Hidenao is speaking live again. Maybe he’ll step down right here, right now…He’s saying that the LDP could not protect itself against the “strong winds” behind this election.

1:42AM Ok, the shochu and grapefruit juice finally arrived. I see that the Japan Observer has given up with his live blogging for the night, as should I. I’m going to call it quits at 2. I have an early meeting tomorrow.

1:45AM Right now on News Zero the topic is “Will we get our pensions? What should we do?”

1:48AM Abe quote from the Nikkei: 改革を続行し、新しい国づくりをすると約束した。約束を果たすことが、私の責任、使命� 。

“By continuing reforms, I promised to build a new country. Carrying out that promise is my responsibility, my mission.”

Is this guy scary or what? Is he just too tired to remember that it’s supposed to be “a beautiful country?”

1:53AM If you’re up now, put on TV Tokyo. That’s the Kumi Koda commercial I can’t stand. Never mind, it’s over.

1:59AM Well, this is it for me. The DPJ has trounced the LDP, and we finally do not have an LDP majority in both houses. Although the LDP has a supermajority in the lower house and can thus override any rejections to their bills, the balance of politics has shifted somewhat. The big question now is whether or not this will lead to a two party system and whether or not the LDP can do something to win back the trust of the voters. We also have to wonder about the health of DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa and whether or not he will continue on as party leader, if that’s even possible.

Nippon TV has switched to showing pro wrestling, with election results posted off to the side. The Norika Fujiwara commercial I like is on…

—————————–

If you’re following the other election in the region today, the Worker’s Party of Korea is trouncing…well, nobody, in an election with reported 99.8% voter turnout at the polls in North Korea. As Adam Richards let us know:

[Concerning elections in the DPRK,] an unnamed private researcher explains: “The election form says ‘I vote affirmatively to make X a representative’ and if the voter agrees, he/she simply places the vote in the box. The rules state that you are to place an X on the election form if you disagree, but they do not provide any writing implements at the election office.”

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