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Future of Japan’s workforce looking gloomier than expected: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare

November 25, 2007
By Ken Worsley


On Friday, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced more gloomy news for the future of Japan’s economy. According to the Ministry, Japan’s labor force stands to fall by 4.4 million workers over the next decade, and could lose up to 10.7 million workers by 2030. The ministry also stated that if measures were taken to allow women, elderly people and young people to find work more easily, the loss to the workforce over the coming decade could be limited to one million workers.

The ministry reported that in 2006, 48.5% of the nation’s women of working age held jobs, a decline of 1.5% from 1996. The ministry also claimed that workers facing mandatory retirement ages see less and less of an incentive to return to work, as companies continue to re-hire them at lower wages.

Immigration was not mentioned as a potential step to take against the reduction of the size of the workforce, and thus we find little reason to suspect that any sort of immigration plan or reform will be included in government plans to prevent the size of the workforce from shrinking at a slower rate.

Filed Under Demographics, Economic Reports, Economics, Labor and Wages 

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Comments

10 Responses to “Future of Japan’s workforce looking gloomier than expected: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare”

  1. Pellegrini on November 26th, 2007 12:25 am

    “…thus we find little reason to suspect that any sort of immigration plan or reform will be included in government plans to prevent the size of the workforce from shrinking at a slower rate.”

    Yes, it definitely looks as though immigration will be a last (death-throes) resort.

  2. Kraig on November 26th, 2007 12:48 am

    There are good and bad reasons why the government is not publicly considering immigration. I honestly don’t think the public would accept it, though the National Police Agency are certainly party to blame for that, and the media for allowing their spin. Could this fingerprint policy be a way to make some measure of immigration acceptable? Given how thoroughly people can be tracked, maybe a gradual increase in certain professions, such as nursing, could be allowed.

  3. MG on November 26th, 2007 3:13 pm

    At this stage, one has to assume that the Japanese government and industry chiefs are ok with the population shrinking. They have taken zero steps that could actually result in the situation being reversed, despite being aware of a looming crisis since the mid-80s. I don’t just mean immigration - other steps that could or should have been taken simply were not, and now it’s pretty much too late. Government after government has set up useless task forces and ‘discussion groups’ that knew nothing about the issue and could not contribute to producing consistent policy.

  4. Forza on November 26th, 2007 9:34 pm

    MG - The current ruling political class, like the one before it, stands to lose nothing due to the population decrease. It’s up to the younger generation, the one that will be squeezed 20-30 years from now, to get vocal. Won’t happen.

  5. SRR on November 26th, 2007 11:19 pm

    From the point of view of those with power, immigration cannot be tolerated. Small changes in voter patterns would hurt them and their legacy too much. The negative effects of the shrinking population will have lesser impact on those with power in Japanese society. Allowing immigration is a greater threat to their power than the shrinking population.

  6. MG on November 27th, 2007 12:07 am

    Forza,

    That’s pretty much why I assume nothing will happen. Lip service will continually be given to raising efficiency levels, but little progress actually made. Immigrants will continue to slip in to do the dirty work - though I think there will be some action if we see more than 3% of the workforce become non-citizen.

  7. John S on December 3rd, 2007 2:57 am

    I think there will be some action if we see more than 3% of the workforce become non-citizen.

    As in they lose their citizenship?

  8. WG on December 3rd, 2007 6:47 pm

    I think there will be some action if we see more than 3% of the workforce become non-citizen.

    I think he means if they die. You’re not a citizen anymore once you’re dead, right?

  9. MG on December 4th, 2007 1:15 am

    I mean if they’re not Japanese by virtue of passport.

  10. Ken Worsley on December 4th, 2007 5:24 pm

    There have been percentages bandied around by politicians, but no official number. I think I heard a 5% cap being pushed for.

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