Browse > Home / Politics / Japan’s lower house election to be held in November?

Japan’s lower house election to be held in November?

September 7, 2008
By Ken Worsley


Monday morning’s Nikkei reports that speculation continues to swirl around the possibility of a dissolution of the lower house in October, and a subsequent general election to be held in November:

The ruling and opposition parties are stepping up preparations for a likely November general election on growing speculation that the lower house will be dissolved in early October, soon after the selection of a new prime minister.

…the popular view in the ruling coalition is that the lower house will be dissolved Oct. 3 or Oct. 6.

Why wait over a month to hold the general election?

Should the lower house be dissolved early next month, a general election could be held as early as Oct. 26, but this is considered unlikely because the schedule will be tight. The first Sunday in November is also likely be ruled out because it falls in the middle of a three-day weekend, which would lead to low voter turnout, so the election is expected to be held Nov. 9 or Nov. 16.

Why not wait until next year to hold the general election?

Many ruling coalition lawmakers believe that the lower house should be dissolved immediately after the new cabinet is launched so as to take advantage of the boost in approval ratings that a new government typically enjoys during its honeymoon period with the public.

However, as former Prime Minister Fukuda learned, that “honeymoon” lasts a few weeks at best. Holding the election over a month after dissolving the lower house would seem to factor out the “New Cabinet Bump.”

Filed Under Politics 

Social Bookmarks:
del.icio.us:Japan's lower house election to be held in November? digg:Japan's lower house election to be held in November? newsvine:Japan's lower house election to be held in November? furl:Japan's lower house election to be held in November? reddit:Japan's lower house election to be held in November?
Related Posts:
What effect might the election have on the economy?
Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged
Higher taxi fares coming to Tokyo
Upcoming Economic Reports
Catch 3.0% - Japan’s Consumption Tax, GDP Growth Projections and Interest Rates Coming to a Head

Comments

3 Responses to “Japan’s lower house election to be held in November?”

  1. Steven Towns on September 8th, 2008 11:40 pm

    Nice recap, Ken. If the election unfolds as described by the Nikkei and per your commentary, then it may just bring the LDP one step closer to extinction although byproducts remain in abundance…

  2. Ken Worsley on September 9th, 2008 11:12 pm

    Steven, it’s hard to imagine the LDP/NK coalition holding its 2/3 supermajority in the lower house after this election, which is why I’m a bit surprised the LDP won’t wait. I know NK wants them to do it now because of Tokyo Municipal elections next summer, but again, the logic seems to fail there.

    Jun Okumura has a good piece on further possible PR damage to the LDP:
    http://son-of-gadfly-on-the-wall.blogspot.com/2008/09/poisoned-rice-scandal-political-hay-for.html

  3. Ken Worsley on September 16th, 2008 12:05 am

    The Nikkei is now speculating October 26, even sooner than before:

    http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/AC/TNKS/Nni20080914D14JFF04.htm

    A growing number of LDP members think that a general election should be held before public interest in the LDP, which will have been boosted by the party’s Sept. 22 presidential election, fades.

Got something to say?