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Aso: Japan to emerge first from the global recession

January 1, 2009
By Ken Worsley


For anyone watching the news on New Year’s Day in Japan, Prime Minister Taro Aso’s comments could only come across as bizarre, if not slightly entertaining in a dark way. English language media is reporting Aso as having said, “The government will do its utmost to ease people’s worries about the economy and their livelihoods. Japan will become the first country in the world to emerge from this recession.” The original Japanese, as reported by the Nikkei, was this: “国民の景気や生活への不安を取り除くため、全力を尽くす。世界の中で最も早くこの不況から脱するのは日本だ。” It sounds more like a typical empty campaign pledge to these ears.

Of course, Aso gave no specifics. He did, however, emphasize that the global economic crisis is “US originated” (he loves to point that out), and said that such an event only happens once every 100 years.

At this point, it barely matters what Aso says, since his days in office are numbered, to put things kindly. However, the lack of understanding betrayed by his comments must have left quite a few heads shaking.

Just five days ago, the Nikkei reported that job cuts, which have thus far been almost entirely restricted to temporary and part-time workers, are likely to spill over into cuts of full-time, salaried workers. The Nikkei contends that roughly 88,000 jobs are lost with each 1 trillion yen drop in production of transportation machinery, for example. By such measures, the paper reckons that about 100,000 jobs will be lost in the automotive industry (including parts makers) alone by springtime.

The Cabinet Office itself is forecasting zero percent GDP growth in FY2009. Aso simply is not doing his party any favors by making such announcements without providing any insight as to how he plans to achieve such a goal. In other words, he doesn’t.

Filed Under Business, Japan, Politics 

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Comments

12 Responses to “Aso: Japan to emerge first from the global recession”

  1. Matt on January 2nd, 2009 5:45 am

    First to emerge? Maybe I’m being too simplistic, but I get the impression Japan won’t emerge from the recession until after other countries emerge and start importing Japanese goods. Unless there is a population boom and spending habits change…

  2. Baltimoron on January 2nd, 2009 10:46 am

    As long as politicians don’t resort to protectionism, they can blame whatever they want for this crisis. Wall Street-Big Three-Consumer-bashing will probably explode. It just becomes harder not to enact protectionist legislation when politicians don’t even try to be straight with voters.

  3. White Mountain Links, 1-2-09 | Left Flank on January 2nd, 2009 12:24 pm

    […] JapanBlame Thy Ally: Global politicians might resist protectionism to avoid beggar-thy-neighbor policies, but blaming the US always works politically […]

  4. Adamu on January 2nd, 2009 3:51 pm

    About the spread of job cuts — while they will no doubt spread to full timers, some companies, such as IBM Japan and Nikko Cordial Securities, have already gone through with a so-called voluntary retirement program to get rid of higher-paid full time workers. The process entails the HR department sitting targeted employees down, explaining that sorry you’re being let go but we have a nice severance package, now please sign here agreeing to quit and here to show you waive your right to sue us.

    I am pretty amazed Aso would make such a claim without giving any real evidence at all. At this stage his administration seems even more chaotic than Abe’s did in 2007.

    Link: http://zasshi.news.yahoo.co.jp/article?a=20081215-00000001-aera-soci

  5. Ken Worsley on January 2nd, 2009 4:05 pm

    Matt, I was thinking much the same. Demand isn’t going to come out of thin air.

    Baltimoron, good point about the blame game. I don’t think Aso’s really harping on it as a core part of his platform, just that he’s trying to shift blame away from the current coalition.

    Adamu, thanks for the link. I like the comparison to Abe. He was dealing with the impending doom of the upper house election as well as scandal after scandal in the cabinet. Aso would probably not even survive a single one of the scandals that Abe seemed to BS his way through. Let’s just keep our eyes on the Minister of Agriculture, something’s bound to come up.

  6. White Mountain Links, 1-2-09 (Updated) | Left Flank on January 2nd, 2009 5:40 pm

    […] JapanBlame Thy Ally: Global politicians might resist protectionism to avoid beggar-thy-neighbor policies, but blaming the US always works politically […]

  7. seth on January 5th, 2009 1:03 am

    Is this guy serious? His approval ratings are around 20% and he thinks he can get away with saying “We’re going to be #1!”

    When Abe lost that upper house election, he actually looked dejected. The man looked like he was going to cry. I don’t get the same sense from Aso. I don’t think he really cares about anything other than being prime minister. And he’ll end up blaming others for messing it up for him.

  8. Nikkei: Sanyo to cut 500 full-time jobs Japan Economy News & Blog - Business, Economy, Marketing and Economic Reports on January 5th, 2009 11:16 pm

    […] In our post covering Prime Minister Aso Taro’s New Year’s announcement that Japan would be the first nation to emerge from the global recession, it was mentioned that the Nikkei had recently predicted that job losses would soon start spilling over from the ranks of part-…. […]

  9. Jeremy on January 25th, 2009 4:31 pm

    I hope they are the first but considering there has been recession after recession for so long now here and if all other major players are in recession, how the hell does Japan come out first? Exporting like crazy to Asia and raising prices on consumers here in Japan. They can’t blame gas prices for the rising prices. It is called oligarchy rules in every industry and these oligarchies are raising prices. These two things are what is helping the bottom lines of companies. Since Japanese consumers don’t spend, it is forced out of them/us in this manner. That is the plan, 1-export to asia 2-raise prices to help bottom line= shit results…

  10. DaColl on February 7th, 2009 12:56 am

    First to emerge? Would that also include ignoring the slipping nikkei over the last 25 years?

    The news does a great job of applauding single digit daily/weekly increases in the japanese market , but completely forgets that when compared to other markets, the nikkei has been falling behind for decades now!

    I researched the historical chart (to include both the Japanese real estate bubble of the late 80’s, and the U.S. tech bubble of 2000).

    When looking at the big picture, Japan has a LOT of ground to make up before delcaring ANY sort of recovery.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI

  11. Ken Worsley on February 7th, 2009 1:42 am

    DaColl, Excellent point, and one of the reasons why this site was started in late 2006 - there was so much talk of economic “recovery” at the time, but the macro data said otherwise.

  12. March corporate goods price index down 2.2% Japan Economy News & Blog - Business, Economy, Real Estate, Marketing and Economic Reports on April 16th, 2009 12:10 am

    […] Last August, wholesale prices shot up 7.1% and hit a 27 year high, as commodity prices peaked out. Reuters goes as far to say that “[W]ith both domestic and external demand faltering, Japan could be the slowest among major economies to recover from recession.” This, of course, does not jive with Prime Minister Taro Aso’s New Year’s promise that Japan will be the first nation to reco…. […]

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