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Swine flu a convenient scapegoat? Should the media look in the mirror?

An article published yesterday at the Japan Times opens by telling us that the H1N1 swine flue virus is hurting industries such as tourism and retail, especially in Western Japan. Of course, economists fear that the impact of swine flu will only make a bad situation worse.

Near the top of the article, however, we get this quote:

The outbreak “could pour cold water on the Japanese economy at a time when it just started to bottom out and was about to recover,” said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc.

Emphasis mine. The writers of the article never comment on whether or not this assertion is true, and no figures are provided to back it up. We’re simply supposed to accept the assertion that the economy has “bottomed out” at face value? While it’s certainly hard to imagine seeing anything resembling the previous quarter’s GDP figures coming up again sometime soon, and exports and production figures are looking better, that doesn’t necessarily mean things have bottomed out.

More on point, where is the evidence for the “about to recover” part of the statement coming from? Again, no elaboration from the authors. It’s simply impossible for someone to claim to know that an economy “was about to recover.”

Getting beyond the first few paragraphs, it does seem clear that the hysteria over swine flu is taking a real toll on some industries. Hiroshi Dan, the secretary general of the Japan Ryokan Association’s Kinki branch, told the Japan Times that at the 195 ryokan-style hotels in his region, 362,200 visitors canceled reservations from May 17 to May 19. This adds up to a loss of 4.3 billion yen. Although we aren’t told the average date in the future that these reservations were made for and thus don’t know how many of these reservations could be re-reserved, it still looks like a serious punch in the gut of this industry.

The article goes on to mention that fear is spreading to East Japan, along with the virus. School visits are being canceled and JTB spokesman Yasoji Kato says, “If the situation continues, it will have an impact on our earnings…It is not clear how long the epidemic will continue, but I hope things will stabilize as soon as possible.”

This is very unfortunate, as JTB (and other business operators) would have a legitimate argument that the media is at least partially to blame for losses suffered due to swine flu paranoia.

Look: No one has died of swine flu in Japan. No one. Not a single person. Yes, it is possible that someone may die from it, but the media has whipped up a hysteria that seems to have replaced logic with fear. No one has died from swine flu in Japan, yet the regular flu continues to take victims. Guess which one occupies more time in the nightly news?

At some point, citizens are bound to understand that the media is putting the timing of an economic recovery, and thus their own livelihoods, at risk. Yes, it’s important to take precautions and be safe, and the media should play a role in informing the public about the spread of swine flu and how to take preventative measures, but it makes no sense for the media in Japan to focus on fear mongering and creating paranoia.

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