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Japan consumer confidence rises for second straight month in February

According to data released yesterday by the Cabinet Office, Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index rose by 0.8 points to 39.8 in February, showing an increase for the second consecutive month. The last time the Consumer Confidence Index showed an increase for two months in a row was in August 2009, when it hit 40.1 points. Read more

Consumer confidence index inches up in January

According to data released Friday by the Cabinet Office, Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 39.0 in January, up from 37.6 in in December. January’s rise, however, did not make up for the drop seen in December, as the index remained below the 39.5 level seen in November 2009.

The consumer confidence index itself contains five scores, each of which is considered positive when above 50, and pessimistic when below the 50 mark. Here’s a breakdown for January figures, with the change from the previous month: Read more

Japan Consumer Confidence up for eighth straight month in August

According to data released Friday by the Cabinet Office, Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 40.1 in August, up from 39.4 in July. August was the eighth consecutive month in which the consumer confidence index has shown a rise.

The consumer confidence index itself contains five scores, each of which is considered positive when above 50, and pessimistic when below the 50 mark. The overall score of 40.1 represents the first time since October 2007 that the index has come in above 40 points. Here’s a breakdown for August figures, with the change from the previous month: Read more

Cabinet Office: Economy Watchers Survey up for seventh straight month in July

Earlier today, the Cabinet Office released the results of its monthly Economy Watchers Survey, and the results showed a 0.2 point increase to 42.4 points.

The Economy Watchers survey is measured as an index with a score above 50 indicating a positive view of the economy and a score below 50 representing a pessimistic overall view. The survey measures sentiment amongst taxi drivers, restaurant staff, barbers, and other service industry workers sensitive to frontline economic conditions. The index itself has now been below the 50 mark for the past 27 months. Read more

Japan’s consumer confidence rises for sixth straight month in June

After bottoming out at 26.2 in December, Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index has slowly been creeping upward over the past six months. According to data released by the Cabinet Office today, the Consumer Confidence Index reached 37.6 points in June, up from 35.7 in May. This is the highest reading seen since December 2008, and the index has now risen for six straight months.

The consumer confidence index itself contains five scores, each of which is considered positive when above 50, and pessimistic when below the 50 mark. Here’s a breakdown for June figures, with the change from the previous month: Read more

Core machinery orders at record lows, bankruptcies still soaring

Earlier today, the Cabinet Office announced that core machinery orders in Japan fell 3.0% in May, to 668.2 billion yen. Although this is less than the 5.8% drop seen in April, it still means that machinery orders have fallen to a new all-time low. May was the third month in a row that core machinery orders have fallen.

Clearly, the Japanese economy is not performing as many expect it to, as Nikkei and Dow Jones polls of economists had predicted a 2.0% rise in May core machinery orders. Capital spending still appears to have no predicatoable recovery date in sight, and the figures announced today are going to have a further negative pull on Japan’s second quarter GDP figures. Read more

Cabinet Office data showing recovery?

Earlier today, the Cabinet Office released its Index of Business Conditions report for April. Data showed the Coincident Index moving up 1.0 points to 85.8 points, for the first increase seen in 11 months. Based on this information, the Cabinet Office upgraded the language in its monthly report for the first time in nine months (they were behind the curve) to say that signs of the economy ”ceasing to fall” are seen rather than that the economy is ”worsening.”

Media sources were quick to herald the results. The Nikkei announced that the 1.0 point rise in the coincident index was “adding to signs that the economy has been recovering from the worst recession since the end of World War II.” Read more

Japan’s GDP contracts 3.3% in fourth quarter, 12.7% annualized

While PR fallout has yet to land concerning Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa’s seemingly drunken appearance at the G7 meetings in Rome this past weekend¹, data released today by the Cabinet Office shows Japan’s GDP as having fallen 3.3% in the October quarter, annualized at a 12.7% decline. This is the largest fall since since an annualized 13.1% decline in the January-March quarter of 1974.

For comparison, while Japan’s October-December GDP declined 3.3% against the third quarter, the US saw a 1% fall while the EU experienced a 1.5% contraction.

Where were the declines seen? Here’s a breakdown of performance by major categories, compared against the third quarter:

Domestic Demand: -0.3%

Private Demand: -0.6%

• Private Consumption: -0.4%
• Household Consumption: -0.4%
• Household Consumption (excluding rent): -0.6%
• Private residential investment: +5.7%
• Private non-residential investment: -5.3%

Pubic Demand: +0.6%

• Government consumption: +1.2%
• Public investment: -0.6%

Capital Spending: -2.9%

Exports of goods and services: -13.9%
Imports of goods and services: +2.9%

The largest drag on GDP figures is clearly in the export category, which fell at an annualized 45.0% in the fourth quarter. Is there any end in sight for this? With bankruptcy figures still climbing and machinery orders still falling, the head of research at the Bank of Japan, told reporters last week that there is a possibility that the first quarter of 2009 might see worse numbers than what was reported today.

The BBC quotes State Minister in charge of Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano as saying, “Japan alone won’t be able to recover. The economy has no border. It is our responsibility to rebuild the domestic economy for other countries.”

Such a statement seems to shrug off the possibility that an uptick in domestic consumer spending is either possible or will do much to bolster the economy. Although it’s not stated directly, Yosano’s words seem to run against the spirit of the stimulus package championed by Prime Minister Taro Aso. He is correct in believing that Japan cannot recover until exports begin selling again. However, the final sentence - “It is our responsibility to rebuild the domestic economy for other countries” - seems quite odd. Exports certainly have not fallen off due to problems with Japan being able to provide supply and inventory, and Japan would have little trouble providing ample supply should demand pick up, say, next week or so.

At least Yosano wasn’t visibly drunk when speaking.

¹For more on Nakagawagate, see what Tobias Harris has written over at Observing Japan, as well as what MTC has written at Shisaku.

Japan’s consumer confidence up slightly in January, worries over job security worsen

After having set record lows for four consecutive months, Japan’s consumer confidence index rose by 0.2 points in January to hit 26.4, according to data released today by the Cabinet Office. Although the increase is welcome, it is hardly encouraging, and by no means leaves the impression that Japanese consumers are going to feel significantly better about the economy any time soon.

The consumer confidence index itself contains five scores, each of which is considered positive when above 50, and pessimistic when below the 50 mark. Here’s a breakdown for January’s figures, with the change from the previous month: Read more

Japan consumer confidence index drops to fresh all-time low in December

Earlier today, the Cabinet Office released consumer confidence index figures for December, and the index dropped 2.2 points to 26.2, marking the third consecutive month that consumer confidence has hit an all-time low.

Japan’s consumer confidence index thus set record lows for six of the twelve months in 2008 – from June to August and from October to December.

The consumer confidence index itself contains five scores, each of which is considered positive when above 50, and pessimistic when below the 50 mark. Here’s a breakdown for December figures, with the change from the previous month: Read more

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